贾建民;袁韵;贾轼;

• 1:深圳高等金融研究院/深圳市人工智能与机器人研究院/香港中文大学(深圳)经管学院
• 2:清华大学经济管理学院
• 3:香港大学经济与工商管理学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文报告我们承担的国家自然科学基金新冠专项项目的研究进展,其主要结果已发表在Nature(Jia等人[1])期刊,同时也报告一些相关的扩展分析。首先,基于在疫情爆发前武汉输入到全国各地的人口数量,建立了时空基准风险模型,成功地预测和解释了新冠疫情在全国各地的时空分布特征。进一步,为了在新冠疫情初期对不同地区的疫情风险进行评估,我们发展了一个社区传播风险指数以及风险探测的一套工具,而传播风险是根据实际确诊人数偏离基准模型预测的显著程度来测量的。这一指数可用于疫情预警系统,来辨识和追踪那些具有高传播风险的地区。最后,我们用统计模型和机器学习的方法评估各种人口流动风险源的异质性,检验他们对新冠疫情传播的相对贡献大小,包括比较武汉居民与非武汉居民、不同年龄段、不同性别等对疫情传播的影响。

关键词(KeyWords)： 人口流动;新冠肺炎;疫情传播;时空风险模型;风险分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(72042009和72074072);; 深圳市人工智能与机器人研究院(2020—NT001)的资助

作者(Author): 贾建民;袁韵;贾轼;

Email:

DOI: 10.16262/j.cnki.1000-8217.2020.06.003

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