吕孝礼;付帅泽;朱宪;薛澜;

• 1:清华大学应急管理研究基地
• 2:麦吉尔大学

摘要(Abstract)：

突发事件协同研判指不同主体对突发事件形成共同认识的过程。新冠肺炎疫情及我国近年来发生的若干突发事件均暴露出我国在跨层级协同研判、专家参与协同研判、跨部门协同研判等方面的短板。本文回顾了心理学、组织研究等领域协同研判研究的进展,梳理了影响突发事件协同研判的个体、组织内、组织间等不同层次的因素,以及研判理论在身体、情绪、物理环境等方面的新进展。基于已有文献和多方获取的经验材料凝练出该领域的关键研究议题,包括一线工作人员风险感知与研判行为研究、专家分布式知识综合研判行为研究、跨部门协同研判行为研究、信息载体对研判行为影响研究等。在研究方法上,可加大对多模态分析技术等新兴方法的使用。

关键词(KeyWords)： 协同研判;风险;突发事件;应急管理

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(72042012和71774098)的资助

作者(Author): 吕孝礼;付帅泽;朱宪;薛澜;

Email:

DOI: 10.16262/j.cnki.1000-8217.2020.06.006

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• (1) Emergency Supporting Function Annexes.(2016-09-13)/[2020-12-10].http：//www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/25512.
• (2)也有人译为意义生成。
• (3)也有人译为情景意识或态势感知。
• (4)意义建构理论与决策研究的区别在于：意义建构（研判活动）更强调决策做出前的信息搜集、分析、理解和行动过程；决策完成后，环境将会发生变化，又会导致新的不确定性及模糊性，触发新一轮的意义建构活动。在现实中他们是高度相关的，研判活动帮助决策理清问题并尝试作出回答。
• (1)分布式认知（Distributed Cognition）最早由Hutchins在1995年提出。Hutchins借海员航行的观察记录，发现同一所船上分工不同的海员对环境因素掌握的认知有所差异，基于此发展了分布式认知这一概念[65]。
• (1)山东大学马永驰教授对此图亦有贡献。