姜佳彤;张蒙;黄颖斐;钟晓娜;裴建锁;

• 1:对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院

摘要(Abstract)：

中央提出"六稳"和"六保"措施,应对新冠肺炎疫情对经济的冲击,其中稳定产业链供应链是重中之重。本文基于1997年至2015年区分加工贸易的投入产出表,界定出中国近二十年来六条关键产业链为纺织业、通用专用设备、电气机械及器材制造业、金属制品业、化学工业以及运输、仓储及邮电业,分析新冠肺炎疫情对我国产业链的长短期影响。从疫情常态化来看,数字技术将成为重要的生产要素,稳固国内产业链的同时,理应围绕产业链部署创新链,聚焦产业链数字化和智能化,将数字技术贯穿产业链发展的各环节和产品全生命周期。从而,打造自主可控产业链,提升国际竞争力,稳步实现高效的国内国际双循环,为最终实现伟大复兴目标奠定坚实基础。

关键词(KeyWords)： 产业链供应链;新冠肺炎疫情;双循环;关键产业链

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(72042003)的资助

作者(Author): 姜佳彤;张蒙;黄颖斐;钟晓娜;裴建锁;

Email:

DOI: 10.16262/j.cnki.1000-8217.2020.06.013

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• (1)赫拉利（2017）曾乐观地认为，人类几千年来一直面临的三大重要生存课题---饥荒、瘟疫和战争在新世纪都呈现消失的趋势[1]。显然，此次新冠肺炎疫情显示，瘟疫这一重要生存课题在新世纪仍然不容轻视。Kissler et al.(2020）疫情预测模型显示，持续的社交距离措施应至少持续至2022年；而疫苗研发成功与否，新冠病毒都可能会长期陪伴人类，隔离可能成为可预见未来的一个常态[2]。而Long et al.(2020）的研究更是凸显了新冠病毒的长期狡猾特性，该项研究报告了横断面研究中COVID-19患者的抗体应答情况，随时间推移，患者复阳率呈逐渐升高趋势[3]。
• (1) 2017年投入产出数据是我国迄今部门分类最详细的基准年份投入产出表，区分了包含全部经济活动的149个行业（但横向比较，其细分程度仍然较低，比如美国的投入产出表分类达到500余个），其中包含84个制造业行业。
• (1)部门详情如下：S6=食品制造及烟草加工业；S7=纺织业；S8=服装皮革羽绒及其他纤维制品制造业；S9=木材加工及家具制造业；S10=造纸印刷及文教用品制造业；S11=石油加工及炼焦业；S12=化学工业；S13=非金属矿物制品业；S14=金属冶炼及压延加工业；S15=金属制品业；S16=通用专用设备；S17=交通运输设备制造业；S18=电气机械及器材制造业；S19=电子及通信设备制造业；S20=仪器仪表及文化办公用机械制造业；S21=其他制造业。
• (1)前向关联考察该行业推动下游行业增加值增加情况；后向关联考察该行业拉动上游行业增加值增加情况。直接关联指标只考虑行业之间直接供给或需求关系；完全指标考虑行业直接或间接所有供给或需求关系；净指标衡量相对于该行业对其他行业的依赖程度，其他行业对该行业的依赖程度；完全抽取是指，该行业完全从经济体中消失（既不为其他行业提供中间投入，亦不使用其他行业的产出）后，其他行业的增加值变化；部分抽取指标考察该行业仅提供中间品而不消耗其他行业产出或仅消耗其他行业产出而不提供中间品后，其他行业增加值变化。
• (1)邻近省份：安徽省、江西省、河南省、湖南省、重庆市、陕西省；边境省份：内蒙古自治区、辽宁省、吉林省、黑龙江省、广西壮族自治区、云南省、西藏自治区、甘肃省、新疆维吾尔自治区。